Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$10.12

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 54.5¢

-9% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$710.89

Total Shares1,227

Combined PnL-$19.5

Yes3 traders

Total Value$408.95

Total Shares964

Combined PnL+$9.38

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Noavg 60.1¢	$538.68	$520	-$18.67	63% 175-103 (278)
WarriorPoohCTR	Yesavg 37.2¢	$244.66	$269.31	+$24.65	— 4-3 (7)
HU hugecaulkCTR	Yesavg 49.3¢	$170	$138.74	-$10.08	19% 5-22 (27)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 57.3¢	$152.16	$74.75	+$6.34	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 64¢	$50.82	$46.06	-$4.76	40% 10-15 (25)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 57.8¢	$85.43	$24.93	-$1.43	31% 114-255 (369)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 54¢	$40	$13.73	+$0.78	41% 27-39 (66)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 72¢	$14.4	$11.6	-$2.8	13% 65-441 (506)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 53¢	$10.5	$11.49	+$0.99	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 56.5¢	$8.27	$8.32	+$0.05	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
HoshinoAICTR	Yesavg 39¢	$148.77	$0.89	-$5.2	35% 19-36 (55)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Invested

$538.68

Value

$520

PnL

-$18.67

Record

63%

175-103 (278)

WarriorPoohCTR

Yes

Invested

$244.66

Value

$269.31

PnL

+$24.65

Record

—

4-3 (7)

hugecaulkCTR

Yes

Invested

$170

Value

$138.74

PnL

-$10.08

Record

19%

5-22 (27)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$152.16

Value

$74.75

PnL

+$6.34

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$50.82

Value

$46.06

PnL

-$4.76

Record

40%

10-15 (25)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$85.43

Value

$24.93

PnL

-$1.43

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$40

Value

$13.73

PnL

+$0.78

Record

41%

27-39 (66)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$11.6

PnL

-$2.8

Record

13%

65-441 (506)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.5

Value

$11.49

PnL

+$0.99

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.27

Value

$8.32

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

HoshinoAICTR

Yes

Invested

$148.77

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$5.2

Record

35%

19-36 (55)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.