House control favorite on November 2?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Democratic Party (100%) · Democratic Party at 98¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Democratic Party
4
Democratic Party 100%
$13.5K
$157.03
97.8¢ → 98.3¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDemocratic Party at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319 | Democratic Party | $10.1K | $10.1K | +$87.11 | 59% 2113-1498 (3611) |
QM QMG-CORE | Democratic Partyavg 99.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$6.06 | 77% 1408-417 (1825) |
 RememberAmalek | Democratic Partyavg 95¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$58.58 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Democratic Partyavg 97¢ | $180.63 | $186.1 | +$5.29 | 67% 753-378 (1131) |
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Invested
$10,073.76
Value
$10.1K
PnL
+$87.11
Record
59%
2113-1498 (3611)
Invested
$1,998.93
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$6.06
Record
77%
1408-417 (1825)
RememberAmalekInvested
$1,147.41
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$58.58
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
Invested
$180.63
Value
$186.1
PnL
+$5.29
Record
67%
753-378 (1131)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.