Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.3K
-$7.07
98.1¢ → 98.7¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C0 C03B | Noavg 98.6¢ | $840.86 | $842.07 | +$1.21 | 85% 687-119 (806) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $387.42 | $390.76 | +$3.34 | 73% 2904-1057 (3961) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $41.21 | $40.38 | -$1.96 | 59% 978-672 (1650) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $22.68 | $15.62 | -$7.06 | 39% 9-14 (23) |
 ScottyNoooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $6.4 | $4.9 | -$2.6 | 51% 1531-1500 (3031) |
Invested
$840.86
Value
$842.07
PnL
+$1.21
Record
85%
687-119 (806)
Tenebrus7Invested
$387.42
Value
$390.76
PnL
+$3.34
Record
73%
2904-1057 (3961)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$41.21
Value
$40.38
PnL
-$1.96
Record
59%
978-672 (1650)
Invested
$22.68
Value
$15.62
PnL
-$7.06
Record
39%
9-14 (23)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100Invested
$6.4
Value
$4.9
PnL
-$2.6
Record
51%
1531-1500 (3031)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.