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Yes
balthazar<$100NoYesNoNo
Istaroth<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on October 28?
Resolved No. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$0.54
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares11
Combined PnL-$0.54
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 33%No — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $0.54 | — | -$0.54 | 36% 14865-26983 (41848) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20693-13116 (33809) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1654-1642 (3296) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13143-10017 (23160) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 94.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 60% 1599-1056 (2655) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | — | — | +$0 | 26% 281-787 (1068) |
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
$0.54
Value
—
PnL
-$0.54
Record
36%
14865-26983 (41848)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20693-13116 (33809)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1654-1642 (3296)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13143-10017 (23160)
24
241532532432<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
1599-1056 (2655)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
281-787 (1068)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x1deec464...7b8ed0
Slug
highest-temperature-in-wuhan-on-october-28-2026-17c