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Yes
balthazar<$100NoNoYes
Istaroth<$100NoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 27?
Resolved No. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$29.15
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares203
Combined PnL-$29.15
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 33%No — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $29.15 | — | -$29.15 | 61% 1529-967 (2496) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20522-12983 (33505) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6235-5472 (11707) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 12909-9833 (22742) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 273-593 (866) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 93.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14582-26244 (40826) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$29.15
Value
—
PnL
-$29.15
Record
61%
1529-967 (2496)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20522-12983 (33505)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6235-5472 (11707)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
12909-9833 (22742)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
273-593 (866)
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14582-26244 (40826)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x7f20fd0c...d29e55
Slug
highest-temperature-in-wuhan-on-october-27-2026-22c