Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on November 5?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $454 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$454.15

Combined PnL

$222.11

Smart Money Entry

73.8¢ → 100¢

+35% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$453.12

Total Shares454

Combined PnL+$226.86

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.03

Total Shares114

Combined PnL-$4.75

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 24.1¢	$65.22	$132.14	+$210.09	41% 1238-1808 (3046)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$83.74	$59.74	+$4.43	58% 20305-14907 (35212)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$51.6	$51.62	+$0.03	96% 159-6 (165)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$87.21	$48.8	+$2.21	47% 2267-2540 (4807)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$36.93	$41.67	+$4.74	53% 23194-20409 (43603)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$43.13	$33.51	+$1.1	42% 1234-1717 (2951)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$26.91	$26.28	+$2.64	54% 10311-8906 (19217)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99¢	$21.91	$22.1	+$0.19	58% 12069-8702 (20771)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$15.31	$15.38	+$0.08	39% 1113-1749 (2862)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$54.86	$12.01	+$0.73	41% 2336-3373 (5709)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$14.3	$5	+$0.26	31% 2683-6056 (8739)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$12	$4.88	+$0.35	43% 2237-2912 (5149)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$2.66	$0.7	-$1.96	20% 2788-10990 (13778)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$3.12	$0.33	-$2.79	56% 677-530 (1207)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$65.22

Value

$132.14

PnL

+$210.09

Record

41%

1238-1808 (3046)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$83.74

Value

$59.74

PnL

+$4.43

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$51.6

Value

$51.62

PnL

+$0.03

Record

96%

159-6 (165)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$87.21

Value

$48.8

PnL

+$2.21

Record

47%

2267-2540 (4807)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$36.93

Value

$41.67

PnL

+$4.74

Record

53%

23194-20409 (43603)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$43.13

Value

$33.51

PnL

+$1.1

Record

42%

1234-1717 (2951)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$26.91

Value

$26.28

PnL

+$2.64

Record

54%

10311-8906 (19217)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$21.91

Value

$22.1

PnL

+$0.19

Record

58%

12069-8702 (20771)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$15.31

Value

$15.38

PnL

+$0.08

Record

39%

1113-1749 (2862)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$54.86

Value

$12.01

PnL

+$0.73

Record

41%

2336-3373 (5709)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$14.3

Value

PnL

+$0.26

Record

31%

2683-6056 (8739)

123987456<$100

Invested

$12

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$0.35

Record

43%

2237-2912 (5149)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.66

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$1.96

Record

20%

2788-10990 (13778)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.12

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$2.79

Record

56%

677-530 (1207)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.