Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 2 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on November 5?

2 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (11%) · Yes at 18¢ · $709 held · ends Nov 5

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 11%

Total Value

$708.94

Combined PnL

-$223.81

Smart Money Entry

30.2¢ → 18¢

-40% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 19 top traders (11%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$621.25

Total Shares717

Combined PnL+$19.08

Yes2 traders

Total Value$87.69

Total Shares1,096

Combined PnL-$242.89

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

12% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 64.2¢	$219.84	$153	-$23.82	14% 503-3033 (3536)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$98.94	$98.2	-$0.75	54% 10260-8877 (19137)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 71¢	$62.03	$71.24	+$9.21	41% 2306-3340 (5646)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 26.4¢	$195.97	$59.28	-$136.69	41% 825-1203 (2028)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 57¢	$5.81	$57.76	+$5.82	41% 1203-1759 (2962)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 69.8¢	$39.57	$46.48	+$6.91	42% 1214-1705 (2919)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$37.76	$38.93	+$1.17	47% 2242-2511 (4753)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 61.2¢	$25.53	$34.2	+$8.67	53% 23002-20232 (43234)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Yesavg 37.9¢	$134.61	$28.41	-$106.21	56% 664-524 (1188)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$60.67	$21.82	+$2.32	58% 20160-14785 (34945)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$18.62	$19.61	+$0.99	41% 1142-1647 (2789)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 90¢	$18	$16.6	-$1.4	20% 2639-10442 (13081)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 68¢	$9.86	$14.19	+$4.33	53% 8400-7487 (15887)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 83.4¢	$12.5	$12.3	-$0.2	31% 2658-5876 (8534)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 57¢	$5.8	$8.34	+$2.54	47% 1706-1889 (3595)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 57¢	$5.72	$8.23	+$2.51	39% 1093-1715 (2808)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.9	$8.05	-$0.85	59% 12012-8500 (20512)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 65.2¢	$5.21	$6.56	+$1.35	49% 752-789 (1541)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$5.45	$5.74	+$0.29	44% 2220-2864 (5084)

Istaroth

Invested

$219.84

Value

$153

PnL

-$23.82

Record

14%

503-3033 (3536)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$98.94

Value

$98.2

PnL

-$0.75

Record

54%

10260-8877 (19137)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$62.03

Value

$71.24

PnL

+$9.21

Record

41%

2306-3340 (5646)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$195.97

Value

$59.28

PnL

-$136.69

Record

41%

825-1203 (2028)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.81

Value

$57.76

PnL

+$5.82

Record

41%

1203-1759 (2962)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$39.57

Value

$46.48

PnL

+$6.91

Record

42%

1214-1705 (2919)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$37.76

Value

$38.93

PnL

+$1.17

Record

47%

2242-2511 (4753)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$25.53

Value

$34.2

PnL

+$8.67

Record

53%

23002-20232 (43234)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$134.61

Value

$28.41

PnL

-$106.21

Record

56%

664-524 (1188)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$60.67

Value

$21.82

PnL

+$2.32

Record

58%

20160-14785 (34945)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$18.62

Value

$19.61

PnL

+$0.99

Record

41%

1142-1647 (2789)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$16.6

PnL

-$1.4

Record

20%

2639-10442 (13081)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$9.86

Value

$14.19

PnL

+$4.33

Record

53%

8400-7487 (15887)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$12.5

Value

$12.3

PnL

-$0.2

Record

31%

2658-5876 (8534)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.8

Value

$8.34

PnL

+$2.54

Record

47%

1706-1889 (3595)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.72

Value

$8.23

PnL

+$2.51

Record

39%

1093-1715 (2808)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$8.9

Value

$8.05

PnL

-$0.85

Record

59%

12012-8500 (20512)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$5.21

Value

$6.56

PnL

+$1.35

Record

49%

752-789 (1541)

123987456<$100

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.74

PnL

+$0.29

Record

44%

2220-2864 (5084)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 19 top traders (11%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

12% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.8%

18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$405.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

505.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.