Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on November 5?

3 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (16%) · Yes at 100¢ · $334 held · ends Nov 5

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 16%

Total Value

$333.56

Combined PnL

-$24.14

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 100¢

+103% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 19 top traders (16%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$215.56

Total Shares355

Combined PnL+$41.13

No16 traders

Total Value$117.65

Total Shares871

Combined PnL-$65.27

Yes — 16%No — 84%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-72 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

16% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 84% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Yesavg 99.9¢	$122.57	$122.63	+$0.06	96% 159-6 (165)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 22.7¢	$225.32	$90.13	+$38.91	40% 830-1231 (2061)
PO PoligarchCTR	Noavg 57.9¢	$116.07	$75.73	-$40.34	54% 10311-8906 (19217)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 58.6¢	$63.09	$17.67	-$6.05	58% 20305-14907 (35212)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 44.5¢	$21.34	$12.07	+$5.73	20% 2788-10990 (13778)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 7.2¢	$21.77	$3.02	+$101.07	41% 1238-1808 (3046)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7	$2.8	+$2.16	43% 2237-2912 (5149)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 3.9¢	$6.6	$2.76	-$0.28	53% 29797-26632 (56429)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 89¢	$28.69	$1.66	-$27.03	56% 677-530 (1207)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$16.2	$1.12	-$11	39% 1113-1749 (2862)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 87.3¢	$41.95	$0.88	-$41.06	53% 23194-20409 (43603)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$10.95	$0.78	-$10.17	58% 12069-8702 (20771)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 30.4¢	$13.91	$0.56	-$8.71	41% 1167-1673 (2840)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 25.4¢	$6.51	$0.38	-$4.85	55% 4504-3724 (8228)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 25.1¢	$5.15	$0.28	-$3.57	41% 2336-3373 (5709)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 25.8¢	$4.81	$0.28	-$3.64	42% 1234-1717 (2951)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 80.6¢	$97.9	$0.19	-$8.12	47% 1725-1919 (3644)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 39.7¢	$6.77	$0.19	-$3.83	47% 2267-2540 (4807)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 70.3¢	$10.55	$0.09	-$3.4	31% 2683-6056 (8739)

1DVSBSTD

Yes

Invested

$122.57

Value

$122.63

PnL

+$0.06

Record

96%

159-6 (165)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$225.32

Value

$90.13

PnL

+$38.91

Record

40%

830-1231 (2061)

PoligarchCTR

Invested

$116.07

Value

$75.73

PnL

-$40.34

Record

54%

10311-8906 (19217)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$63.09

Value

$17.67

PnL

-$6.05

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$21.34

Value

$12.07

PnL

+$5.73

Record

20%

2788-10990 (13778)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$21.77

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$101.07

Record

41%

1238-1808 (3046)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$2.16

Record

43%

2237-2912 (5149)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

$2.76

PnL

-$0.28

Record

53%

29797-26632 (56429)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$28.69

Value

$1.66

PnL

-$27.03

Record

56%

677-530 (1207)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$16.2

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$11

Record

39%

1113-1749 (2862)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$41.95

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$41.06

Record

53%

23194-20409 (43603)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$10.95

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$10.17

Record

58%

12069-8702 (20771)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$13.91

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$8.71

Record

41%

1167-1673 (2840)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$4.85

Record

55%

4504-3724 (8228)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$3.57

Record

41%

2336-3373 (5709)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$4.81

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$3.64

Record

42%

1234-1717 (2951)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$97.9

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$8.12

Record

47%

1725-1919 (3644)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$6.77

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$3.83

Record

47%

2267-2540 (4807)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$10.55

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$3.4

Record

31%

2683-6056 (8739)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 19 top traders (16%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-72 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

16% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 84% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.