Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on November 3?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $265 held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$264.69

Combined PnL

$18.3

Smart Money Entry

75.8¢ → 100¢

+32% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$259.47

Total Shares260

Combined PnL+$62.08

Yes2 traders

Total Value$5.23

Total Shares540

Combined PnL-$43.78

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 37¢	$33.43	$90.39	+$56.96	46% 1303-1505 (2808)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$66.66	$57.76	+$0.17	47% 1961-2195 (4156)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$58	$57.51	+$1.88	60% 2409-1627 (4036)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$39.17	$38.84	+$3.05	57% 17528-13093 (30621)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$9.92	$9.93	+$0.01	60% 10619-7212 (17831)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$5.03	$5.03	+$0.01	40% 843-1266 (2109)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$531.54	$4.52	-$43.8	47% 771-855 (1626)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$0.68	$0.71	+$0.03	18% 4096-19230 (23326)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$33.43

Value

$90.39

PnL

+$56.96

Record

46%

1303-1505 (2808)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$66.66

Value

$57.76

PnL

+$0.17

Record

47%

1961-2195 (4156)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$58

Value

$57.51

PnL

+$1.88

Record

60%

2409-1627 (4036)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$39.17

Value

$38.84

PnL

+$3.05

Record

57%

17528-13093 (30621)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.92

Value

$9.93

PnL

+$0.01

Record

60%

10619-7212 (17831)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$0.01

Record

40%

843-1266 (2109)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$531.54

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$43.8

Record

47%

771-855 (1626)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.71

PnL

+$0.03

Record

18%

4096-19230 (23326)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.