Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on November 6?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 40¢ · $242 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$242.01
-$4.26
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 34¢ | $170.11 | $164.88 | -$5.23 | 43% 816-1062 (1878) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 60¢ | $100 | $50 | -$0.5 | 14% 503-3047 (3550) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 57.2¢ | $17.17 | $18 | +$0.83 | 61% 14976-9440 (24416) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 55.8¢ | $8.49 | $9.13 | +$0.64 | 58% 20201-14846 (35047) |
Invested
$170.11
Value
$164.88
PnL
-$5.23
Record
43%
816-1062 (1878)
IstarothInvested
$100
Value
$50
PnL
-$0.5
Record
14%
503-3047 (3550)
Invested
$17.17
Value
$18
PnL
+$0.83
Record
61%
14976-9440 (24416)
Invested
$8.49
Value
$9.13
PnL
+$0.64
Record
58%
20201-14846 (35047)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.