Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on November 5?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $52 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$52.28
-$37.23
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Mature
42h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 82.3¢ | $42.91 | $33.33 | +$5.26 | 58% 20250-14870 (35120) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $18.65 | $18.64 | +$1.7 | 54% 10281-8887 (19168) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.91 | $0.18 | -$2.89 | 41% 1223-1782 (3005) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $24.89 | $0.07 | -$24.82 | 43% 817-1080 (1897) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $6.05 | $0.04 | -$6.01 | 31% 2671-5963 (8634) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $10.5 | $0.03 | -$10.47 | 48% 2184-2398 (4582) |
Invested
$42.91
Value
$33.33
PnL
+$5.26
Record
58%
20250-14870 (35120)
Invested
$18.65
Value
$18.64
PnL
+$1.7
Record
54%
10281-8887 (19168)
Invested
$2.91
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$2.89
Record
41%
1223-1782 (3005)
Invested
$24.89
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$24.82
Record
43%
817-1080 (1897)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$6.01
Record
31%
2671-5963 (8634)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$10.47
Record
48%
2184-2398 (4582)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.