Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 24°C on November 5?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $589 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$588.54

Combined PnL

-$15.08

Smart Money Entry

60.4¢ → 100¢

+65% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$588.43

Total Shares589

Combined PnL+$1.92

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.11

Total Shares208

Combined PnL-$17

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 99.9¢	$262.24	$262.45	-$0.33	35% 18887-34923 (53810)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 8.4¢	$49.16	$251.55	+$0.16	41% 1238-1808 (3046)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$25	$24.99	+$0.89	43% 2237-2912 (5149)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$22.07	$22.14	+$0.07	53% 23194-20409 (43603)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$38.06	$16.36	+$0.3	58% 20305-14907 (35212)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$10.11	$10.93	+$0.83	54% 10311-8906 (19217)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.45	$0.08	-$14.37	42% 821-1112 (1933)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$2.51	$0.02	-$2.5	31% 2683-6056 (8739)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.14	$0.01	-$0.13	27% 7006-19139 (26145)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$262.24

Value

$262.45

PnL

-$0.33

Record

35%

18887-34923 (53810)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$49.16

Value

$251.55

PnL

+$0.16

Record

41%

1238-1808 (3046)

123987456<$100

Invested

$25

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$0.89

Record

43%

2237-2912 (5149)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$22.07

Value

$22.14

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

23194-20409 (43603)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$38.06

Value

$16.36

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$10.11

Value

$10.93

PnL

+$0.83

Record

54%

10311-8906 (19217)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.45

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$14.37

Record

42%

821-1112 (1933)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.51

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.5

Record

31%

2683-6056 (8739)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.13

Record

27%

7006-19139 (26145)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.