Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C on November 5?

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (59%) · No at 56¢ · $494 held · ends Nov 5

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 59%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$494.21

Combined PnL

$40.51

Smart Money Entry

63.3¢ → 56.5¢

-11% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$198.58

Total Shares388

Combined PnL-$38.99

Yes7 traders

Total Value$207.66

Total Shares620

Combined PnL+$79.51

No — 59%Yes — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$85.32	$87.96	+$2.65	54% 10041-8677 (18718)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37¢	$48.28	$53.78	+$5.5
└ No leg	Noavg 63.7¢	$37.04	$34.19	-$2.85
GH ghorrock	Noavg 81.5¢	$140.34	$68.04	-$35.4	58% 19476-14320 (33796)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$19.37	$66.04	+$46.67	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 37.1¢	$40.04	$41.75	+$1.72	41% 1185-1677 (2862)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$6.05	$35.62	+$29.57	44% 797-1006 (1803)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.3¢	$24.85	$25.57	+$0.72	47% 1691-1873 (3564)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 33.9¢	$20.87	$24.56	+$3.69	39% 1092-1680 (2772)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$29.25	$23.33	-$5.92	55% 4412-3609 (8021)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 43.2¢	$17.88	$19.31	+$1.43	40% 1051-1581 (2632)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 58.8¢	$18.73	$18.95	+$0.22	39% 1057-1660 (2717)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 52.1¢	$51.64	$15.49	+$2.6	53% 8234-7331 (15565)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$10.4	$11.16	+$0.77	27% 6855-18807 (25662)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 89.1¢	$50.67	$11	-$11.98	77% 12555-3711 (16266)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 72.8¢	$19.57	$10.84	-$8.73	53% 29270-26191 (55461)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 75¢	$13.22	$10.16	-$3.06	47% 2146-2441 (4587)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 54.1¢	$9.08	$9.45	+$0.37	32% 2531-5407 (7938)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 45.4¢	$9.57	$8.21	-$1.36	40% 2181-3225 (5406)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 28¢	$10.95	$6.76	+$19.23	35% 18181-34050 (52231)

PoligarchARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.32

Value

$87.96

PnL

+$2.65

Record

54%

10041-8677 (18718)

Both legs:

Yes$48.2837¢+$5.5

No$37.0463.7¢-$2.85

ghorrock

Invested

$140.34

Value

$68.04

PnL

-$35.4

Record

58%

19476-14320 (33796)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.37

Value

$66.04

PnL

+$46.67

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.04

Value

$41.75

PnL

+$1.72

Record

41%

1185-1677 (2862)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.05

Value

$35.62

PnL

+$29.57

Record

44%

797-1006 (1803)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.85

Value

$25.57

PnL

+$0.72

Record

47%

1691-1873 (3564)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$20.87

Value

$24.56

PnL

+$3.69

Record

39%

1092-1680 (2772)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$29.25

Value

$23.33

PnL

-$5.92

Record

55%

4412-3609 (8021)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.88

Value

$19.31

PnL

+$1.43

Record

40%

1051-1581 (2632)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$18.73

Value

$18.95

PnL

+$0.22

Record

39%

1057-1660 (2717)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$51.64

Value

$15.49

PnL

+$2.6

Record

53%

8234-7331 (15565)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.4

Value

$11.16

PnL

+$0.77

Record

27%

6855-18807 (25662)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$50.67

Value

$11

PnL

-$11.98

Record

77%

12555-3711 (16266)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.57

Value

$10.84

PnL

-$8.73

Record

53%

29270-26191 (55461)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$13.22

Value

$10.16

PnL

-$3.06

Record

47%

2146-2441 (4587)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$9.08

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$0.37

Record

32%

2531-5407 (7938)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.57

Value

$8.21

PnL

-$1.36

Record

40%

2181-3225 (5406)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$10.95

Value

$6.76

PnL

+$19.23

Record

35%

18181-34050 (52231)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.