Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on November 5?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 48¢ · $426 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$426.17
$159.94
25.3¢ → 47.5¢
+88% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 23.8¢ | $210.65 | $371.04 | +$160.39 | 44% 777-973 (1750) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.3¢ | $42.52 | $43.74 | +$1.22 | 58% 2456-1793 (4249) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $15.97 | $6.66 | -$0.61 | 58% 18975-13958 (32933) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 63.2¢ | $3.25 | $2.7 | -$0.55 | 47% 1630-1807 (3437) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 66.6¢ | $23.21 | $2.03 | -$0.51 | 79% 12088-3268 (15356) |
Invested
$210.65
Value
$371.04
PnL
+$160.39
Record
44%
777-973 (1750)
Invested
$42.52
Value
$43.74
PnL
+$1.22
Record
58%
2456-1793 (4249)
Invested
$15.97
Value
$6.66
PnL
-$0.61
Record
58%
18975-13958 (32933)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$0.55
Record
47%
1630-1807 (3437)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$23.21
Value
$2.03
PnL
-$0.51
Record
79%
12088-3268 (15356)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.