Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on November 4?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $515 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$514.99

Combined PnL

$10.33

Smart Money Entry

92.3¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$489.25

Total Shares489

Combined PnL+$50.56

Yes4 traders

Total Value$25.74

Total Shares1,287

Combined PnL-$40.23

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 96.2¢	$245.75	$166.89	-$5.28	15% 435-2472 (2907)
balthazar	Noavg 94.8¢	$101.17	$105.7	+$4.53	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 94¢	$62.67	$65.99	+$3.32	60% 11576-7759 (19335)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 82.4¢	$52.87	$56.72	+$3.85	53% 9849-8576 (18425)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 93.4¢	$28.9	$29.34	+$1.65	38% 997-1606 (2603)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$56.24	$24.59	+$1.44	41% 1145-1641 (2786)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$66.22	$22.87	+$0.26	58% 18975-13958 (32933)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 11.7¢	$26.21	$19.51	-$6.7	44% 777-973 (1750)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 9.2¢	$4.8	$6.95	+$40.18	47% 2081-2362 (4443)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$37.94	$5.86	-$32.08	58% 2456-1793 (4249)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 89.3¢	$10.49	$5.25	+$0.19	55% 4365-3560 (7925)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$36.39	$4.95	+$0.43	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.11	$0.2	+$0.09	56% 621-495 (1116)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.8¢	$6.6	$0.16	-$1.54	40% 2104-3149 (5253)

Istaroth

Invested

$245.75

Value

$166.89

PnL

-$5.28

Record

15%

435-2472 (2907)

balthazar

Invested

$101.17

Value

$105.7

PnL

+$4.53

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$62.67

Value

$65.99

PnL

+$3.32

Record

60%

11576-7759 (19335)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$52.87

Value

$56.72

PnL

+$3.85

Record

53%

9849-8576 (18425)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$28.9

Value

$29.34

PnL

+$1.65

Record

38%

997-1606 (2603)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$56.24

Value

$24.59

PnL

+$1.44

Record

41%

1145-1641 (2786)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$66.22

Value

$22.87

PnL

+$0.26

Record

58%

18975-13958 (32933)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$26.21

Value

$19.51

PnL

-$6.7

Record

44%

777-973 (1750)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$6.95

PnL

+$40.18

Record

47%

2081-2362 (4443)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.94

Value

$5.86

PnL

-$32.08

Record

58%

2456-1793 (4249)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$10.49

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.19

Record

55%

4365-3560 (7925)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$36.39

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.43

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.2

PnL

+$0.09

Record

56%

621-495 (1116)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.6

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$1.54

Record

40%

2104-3149 (5253)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.