Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on November 2?

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 80¢ · $422 held · ends Nov 2

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$421.95

Combined PnL

$9.64

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$170.6

Total Shares213

Combined PnL+$11.78

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.29

Total Shares11

Combined PnL-$2.14

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Yesavg 27.5¢	$285.04	$249.06	-$35.98	47% 698-782 (1480)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.4¢	$126.91	$146.25	+$20.8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.5¢	$141.6	$102.81	-$56.78
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 79¢	$168.42	$170.6	+$11.78	54% 467-391 (858)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.9¢	$9.18	$1.27	-$2.5	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$0.66	$1.02	+$0.36	59% 1921-1351 (3272)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$285.04

Value

$249.06

PnL

-$35.98

Record

47%

698-782 (1480)

Both legs:

No$126.9169.4¢+$20.8

Yes$141.627.5¢-$56.78

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$168.42

Value

$170.6

PnL

+$11.78

Record

54%

467-391 (858)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.18

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$2.5

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.66

Value

$1.02

PnL

+$0.36

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.