Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 30?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 38¢ · $652 held · ends Oct 30

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$651.52

Combined PnL

$34.08

Smart Money Entry

39.3¢ → 37.5¢

-5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$390.03

Total Shares907

Combined PnL+$33.47

No3 traders

Total Value$261.48

Total Shares446

Combined PnL+$0.61

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 39.1¢	$214.64	$235.89	+$21.26	47% 615-701 (1316)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 58¢	$162.97	$160.16	-$2.81	55% 324-260 (584)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 39.6¢	$141.93	$154.14	+$12.21	50% 1704-1692 (3396)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 60.7¢	$81.65	$72.77	+$3.82	53% 6405-5609 (12014)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 57.8¢	$28.95	$28.55	-$0.4	61% 20834-13247 (34081)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$214.64

Value

$235.89

PnL

+$21.26

Record

47%

615-701 (1316)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$162.97

Value

$160.16

PnL

-$2.81

Record

55%

324-260 (584)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$141.93

Value

$154.14

PnL

+$12.21

Record

50%

1704-1692 (3396)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$81.65

Value

$72.77

PnL

+$3.82

Record

53%

6405-5609 (12014)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$28.95

Value

$28.55

PnL

-$0.4

Record

61%

20834-13247 (34081)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.