Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on November 16?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 89%
$85.1
-$26.41
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 45%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $84.92 | $84.96 | +$0.04 | 99% 1609-24 (1633) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $6.49 | $0.04 | -$6.46 | 35% 3905-7251 (11156) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.52 | $0.03 | -$5.49 | 36% 332-601 (933) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.45 | $0.03 | -$5.42 | 28% 3298-8406 (11704) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.64 | $0.02 | -$3.62 | 14% 103-625 (728) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.69 | $0.01 | -$2.67 | 26% 603-1747 (2350) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.18 | $0.01 | -$1.18 | 38% 3808-6231 (10039) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.16 | $0.01 | -$1.16 | 36% 1626-2854 (4480) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0 | -$0.45 | 24% 788-2560 (3348) |
Invested
$84.92
Value
$84.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
99%
1609-24 (1633)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$6.49
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$6.46
Record
35%
3905-7251 (11156)
Invested
$5.52
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$5.49
Record
36%
332-601 (933)
Invested
$5.45
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$5.42
Record
28%
3298-8406 (11704)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.64
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$3.62
Record
14%
103-625 (728)
Invested
$2.69
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.67
Record
26%
603-1747 (2350)
Invested
$1.18
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.18
Record
38%
3808-6231 (10039)
Invested
$1.16
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.16
Record
36%
1626-2854 (4480)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.45
Record
24%
788-2560 (3348)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.