Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on November 16?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $101 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$100.84
-$11.27
99.7¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 50%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.9 | $29.97 | +$0.07 | 34% 352-671 (1023) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $20.69 | $20.75 | +$0.06 | 39% 327-521 (848) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.98 | +$0.04 | 53% 7473-6603 (14076) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.98 | +$0.04 | 99% 1609-24 (1633) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $9.97 | $9.99 | +$0.02 | 30% 1175-2733 (3908) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.64 | $0.1 | -$3.54 | 14% 103-625 (728) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.18 | $0.03 | -$1.15 | 38% 3808-6231 (10039) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $60.71 | $0.03 | -$6.36 | 35% 3905-7251 (11156) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0.01 | -$0.44 | 24% 788-2560 (3348) |
Invested
$29.9
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.07
Record
34%
352-671 (1023)
Invested
$20.69
Value
$20.75
PnL
+$0.06
Record
39%
327-521 (848)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
7473-6603 (14076)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.04
Record
99%
1609-24 (1633)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
30%
1175-2733 (3908)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.64
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$3.54
Record
14%
103-625 (728)
Invested
$1.18
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.15
Record
38%
3808-6231 (10039)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$60.71
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$6.36
Record
35%
3905-7251 (11156)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.44
Record
24%
788-2560 (3348)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.