Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on November 16?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 77¢ · $131 held · ends Nov 16

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$131.31

Combined PnL

$19.61

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$105.28

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$6.21

Yes4 traders

Total Value$26.03

Total Shares113

Combined PnL+$13.39

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 75.2¢	$39.18	$42.06	+$2.87	53% 7633-6716 (14349)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 74.4¢	$35.23	$38.22	+$2.99	70% 985-425 (1410)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 80¢	$16.62	$16.77	+$0.16	30% 1197-2740 (3937)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.2¢	$48.92	$13.5	+$11.72	14% 110-655 (765)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.4¢	$50.14	$9.84	+$0.5	43% 855-1149 (2004)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 77¢	$4	$4.19	+$0.19	60% 945-637 (1582)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 80.7¢	$4.05	$4.05	+$0	48% 1303-1431 (2734)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$1.28	$2.11	+$0.82	50% 982-981 (1963)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.23	$0.58	+$0.35	38% 3892-6366 (10258)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.18

Value

$42.06

PnL

+$2.87

Record

53%

7633-6716 (14349)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$35.23

Value

$38.22

PnL

+$2.99

Record

70%

985-425 (1410)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$16.62

Value

$16.77

PnL

+$0.16

Record

30%

1197-2740 (3937)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.92

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$11.72

Record

14%

110-655 (765)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.14

Value

$9.84

PnL

+$0.5

Record

43%

855-1149 (2004)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

Value

$4.19

PnL

+$0.19

Record

60%

945-637 (1582)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1303-1431 (2734)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.28

Value

$2.11

PnL

+$0.82

Record

50%

982-981 (1963)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.58

PnL

+$0.35

Record

38%

3892-6366 (10258)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.