Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on November 16?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $15 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$15.16

Combined PnL

-$29.83

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$14.99

Total Shares15

Combined PnL+$0.01

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.17

Total Shares330

Combined PnL-$29.84

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$14.98	$14.99	+$0.01	99% 1758-24 (1782)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.49	$0.04	-$6.46	35% 3958-7409 (11367)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.22	$0.03	-$6.19	14% 110-655 (765)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.52	$0.03	-$5.49	37% 359-623 (982)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$0.03	-$5.42	28% 3345-8619 (11964)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.69	$0.01	-$2.67	26% 614-1782 (2396)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.18	$0.01	-$1.18	38% 3892-6366 (10258)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.16	$0.01	-$1.16	36% 1656-2928 (4584)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$0	-$0.81	52% 1000-941 (1941)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	23% 821-2761 (3582)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$14.98

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1758-24 (1782)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.49

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.46

Record

35%

3958-7409 (11367)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.22

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.19

Record

14%

110-655 (765)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.52

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.49

Record

37%

359-623 (982)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.42

Record

28%

3345-8619 (11964)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.69

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.67

Record

26%

614-1782 (2396)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.18

Record

38%

3892-6366 (10258)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.16

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.16

Record

36%

1656-2928 (4584)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

PnL

-$0.81

Record

52%

1000-941 (1941)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

23%

821-2761 (3582)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.