Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on November 8?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 25¢ · $812 held · ends Nov 8

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$811.71

Combined PnL

$7.24

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$86.02

Total Shares89

Combined PnL+$3.65

Yes2 traders

Total Value$29.25

Total Shares117

Combined PnL+$3.6

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$648.1	$696.45	+$48.34	38% 887-1421 (2308)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.5¢	$516.66	$487.02	-$29.64
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.7¢	$131.44	$209.43	+$77.98
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 74.2¢	$82.37	$86.02	+$3.65	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.1¢	$24.32	$27.5	+$3.18	32% 2247-4752 (6999)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$1.33	$1.75	+$0.42	58% 21689-15792 (37481)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Invested

$648.1

Value

$696.45

PnL

+$48.34

Record

38%

887-1421 (2308)

Both legs:

No$516.6678.5¢-$29.64

Yes$131.4415.7¢+$77.98

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$82.37

Value

$86.02

PnL

+$3.65

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.32

Value

$27.5

PnL

+$3.18

Record

32%

2247-4752 (6999)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.42

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.