Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on November 5?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $49 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$49.2
-$30.17
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $69.09 | $24.79 | +$1.3 | 58% 20305-14907 (35212) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $47.72 | $17.69 | -$30.03 | 42% 821-1112 (1933) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $5.09 | $4.91 | -$0.08 | 58% 6691-4768 (11459) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.7¢ | $10 | $0.35 | -$0.22 | 75% 13139-4322 (17461) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $1.48 | $0.31 | -$1.17 | 18% 4435-20817 (25252) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.17 | $0.19 | +$0.02 | 42% 1234-1717 (2951) |
Invested
$69.09
Value
$24.79
PnL
+$1.3
Record
58%
20305-14907 (35212)
Invested
$47.72
Value
$17.69
PnL
-$30.03
Record
42%
821-1112 (1933)
Invested
$5.09
Value
$4.91
PnL
-$0.08
Record
58%
6691-4768 (11459)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$0.22
Record
75%
13139-4322 (17461)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$1.48
Value
$0.31
PnL
-$1.17
Record
18%
4435-20817 (25252)
Invested
$0.17
Value
$0.19
PnL
+$0.02
Record
42%
1234-1717 (2951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.