Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (58%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on November 8?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 42¢ · $356 held · ends Nov 8
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Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$355.96
$206.46
16.1¢ → 42¢
+161% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 15.5¢ | $123.16 | $333.2 | +$210.04 | 38% 887-1421 (2308) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70.3¢ | $31.54 | $15.3 | -$3.49 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $7.55 | $7.46 | -$0.09 | 54% 10730-9241 (19971) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.