Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on November 7?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $96 held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$95.85

Combined PnL

$22.66

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$47.39

Total Shares132

Combined PnL+$15.85

No3 traders

Total Value$48.32

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$6.81

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.9¢	$32.74	$47.39	+$15.85	53% 4144-3712 (7856)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 82.2¢	$28.06	$31.74	+$3.68	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$28.35	$15.3	+$2.89	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 81.2¢	$552.33	$1.28	+$0.24	38% 887-1421 (2308)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.74

Value

$47.39

PnL

+$15.85

Record

53%

4144-3712 (7856)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$28.06

Value

$31.74

PnL

+$3.68

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.35

Value

$15.3

PnL

+$2.89

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$552.33

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.24

Record

38%

887-1421 (2308)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.