Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on November 7?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $29 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$28.7
-$27.76
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $15.48 | $17.96 | +$2.48 | 54% 10730-9241 (19971) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $18.44 | $10.06 | +$0.98 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $31.83 | $0.68 | -$31.15 | 38% 887-1421 (2308) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yes | $0 | $0 | -$0.08 | 58% 16907-12241 (29148) |
Invested
$15.48
Value
$17.96
PnL
+$2.48
Record
54%
10730-9241 (19971)
Invested
$18.44
Value
$10.06
PnL
+$0.98
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
Invested
$31.83
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$31.15
Record
38%
887-1421 (2308)
Invested
$0
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.08
Record
58%
16907-12241 (29148)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.