Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on November 15?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (54%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $196 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 54%

Total Value

$195.52

Combined PnL

-$12.91

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$194.85

Total Shares195

Combined PnL+$2.78

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.67

Total Shares197

Combined PnL-$15.69

No — 46%Yes — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98¢	$89.81	$91.49	+$1.67	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$64.01	$64.87	+$0.86	33% 83-166 (249)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$21.08	$21.1	+$0.01	50% 919-925 (1844)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98¢	$9.8	$9.98	+$0.18	35% 330-600 (930)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$4.99	$5.04	+$0.05	38% 329-529 (858)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$2.37	$2.38	+$0	60% 874-593 (1467)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.88	$0.22	-$9.55	29% 308-740 (1048)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.08	$0.2	-$0.88	42% 803-1100 (1903)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2	$0.08	-$1.92	47% 887-1007 (1894)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.08	-$1.74	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$1.38	$0.07	-$1.31	40% 2676-3963 (6639)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.08	$0.01	-$0.07	49% 854-884 (1738)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.24	$0.01	-$0.23	28% 3298-8406 (11704)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$89.81

Value

$91.49

PnL

+$1.67

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

123987456<$100

Invested

$64.01

Value

$64.87

PnL

+$0.86

Record

33%

83-166 (249)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$21.08

Value

$21.1

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0.18

Record

35%

330-600 (930)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.05

Record

38%

329-529 (858)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.37

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.88

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$9.55

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.88

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$1.92

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$1.74

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.38

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$1.31

Record

40%

2676-3963 (6639)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.23

Record

28%

3298-8406 (11704)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.