Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on November 14?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 100¢ · $144 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$144.26

Combined PnL

-$5.43

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$144.16

Total Shares145

Combined PnL-$4.16

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.1

Total Shares16

Combined PnL-$1.27

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$31.9	$31.73	-$0.18	58% 703-515 (1218)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97¢	$19.4	$19.92	+$0.52	40% 650-980 (1630)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.83	-$0.11	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$16.47	$16.47	+$0	46% 1095-1300 (2395)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99¢	$14.18	$14.26	+$0.09	28% 1018-2625 (3643)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$46.77	$13.35	-$2.83	43% 5066-6598 (11664)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$11.25	$11.17	-$0.07	59% 724-513 (1237)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.08	$5.05	-$0.03	51% 769-727 (1496)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5	$4.99	-$0.01	99% 1281-15 (1296)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$26.35	$4.96	-$1.54	29% 3178-7933 (11111)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.43	$2.42	-$0	63% 736-439 (1175)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.36	$0.09	-$1.27	39% 3636-5765 (9401)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.25	$0.01	+$0.01	52% 1696-1538 (3234)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$31.9

Value

$31.73

PnL

-$0.18

Record

58%

703-515 (1218)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$19.4

Value

$19.92

PnL

+$0.52

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.83

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$16.47

Value

$16.47

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1095-1300 (2395)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$14.18

Value

$14.26

PnL

+$0.09

Record

28%

1018-2625 (3643)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$46.77

Value

$13.35

PnL

-$2.83

Record

43%

5066-6598 (11664)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$11.25

Value

$11.17

PnL

-$0.07

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

99%

1281-15 (1296)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$26.35

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$1.54

Record

29%

3178-7933 (11111)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.43

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$0

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$1.27

Record

39%

3636-5765 (9401)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.