Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on November 13?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 43¢ · $295 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$294.69
$44.25
43.1¢ → 42.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Yesavg 45.9¢ | $81.19 | $89.74 | +$8.55 | 58% 1047-766 (1813) |
24 241532532432CTR | Noavg 42¢ | $107.77 | $82.03 | +$5.26 | 37% 461-788 (1249) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Yesavg 50.8¢ | $78.64 | $61.18 | +$32.54 | 61% 2173-1382 (3555) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $33 | $32.63 | -$0.38 | 28% 118-304 (422) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $10.19 | $8.99 | -$1.2 | 53% 6255-5540 (11795) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 40.8¢ | $7.77 | $8.29 | +$0.52 | 54% 1036-900 (1936) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $7.88 | $6.9 | -$0.98 | 75% 713-243 (956) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $5 | $4.94 | -$0.06 | 29% 177-437 (614) |
Invested
$81.19
Value
$89.74
PnL
+$8.55
Record
58%
1047-766 (1813)
Invested
$107.77
Value
$82.03
PnL
+$5.26
Record
37%
461-788 (1249)
Invested
$78.64
Value
$61.18
PnL
+$32.54
Record
61%
2173-1382 (3555)
Invested
$33
Value
$32.63
PnL
-$0.38
Record
28%
118-304 (422)
Invested
$10.19
Value
$8.99
PnL
-$1.2
Record
53%
6255-5540 (11795)
Invested
$7.77
Value
$8.29
PnL
+$0.52
Record
54%
1036-900 (1936)
Invested
$7.88
Value
$6.9
PnL
-$0.98
Record
75%
713-243 (956)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.94
PnL
-$0.06
Record
29%
177-437 (614)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.