Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on November 13?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 60¢ · $252 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$252.27
$58.02
81.3¢ → 59.5¢
-27% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.1¢ | $64.9 | $83.32 | +$60.75 | 37% 467-800 (1267) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.5¢ | $16.28 | $53.43 | +$37.15 | 61% 2175-1410 (3585) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $66 | $45 | -$21 | 26% 909-2537 (3446) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 71.6¢ | $44.53 | $26.4 | -$3.63 | 53% 1117-973 (2090) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $26.53 | $18.59 | -$7.94 | 30% 186-444 (630) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $21.97 | $18.56 | -$3.4 | 65% 4210-2230 (6440) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $19.25 | $6.95 | -$3.9 | 53% 6319-5588 (11907) |
Invested
$64.9
Value
$83.32
PnL
+$60.75
Record
37%
467-800 (1267)
Invested
$16.28
Value
$53.43
PnL
+$37.15
Record
61%
2175-1410 (3585)
Invested
$66
Value
$45
PnL
-$21
Record
26%
909-2537 (3446)
Invested
$44.53
Value
$26.4
PnL
-$3.63
Record
53%
1117-973 (2090)
Invested
$26.53
Value
$18.59
PnL
-$7.94
Record
30%
186-444 (630)
Invested
$21.97
Value
$18.56
PnL
-$3.4
Record
65%
4210-2230 (6440)
Invested
$19.25
Value
$6.95
PnL
-$3.9
Record
53%
6319-5588 (11907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.