Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on November 10?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 92¢ · $397 held · ends Nov 10

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$396.54

Combined PnL

-$50.92

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 91.5¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$390.5

Total Shares521

Combined PnL-$51.18

Yes4 traders

Total Value$6.03

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$0.27

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 82.1¢	$387.46	$335.42	-$52.04	23% 149-503 (652)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 81.7¢	$33.38	$35.46	+$2.08	88% 434-59 (493)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86¢	$56.27	$16.16	-$0.48	52% 244-227 (471)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$4.11	$4.57	+$0.46	2% 16-663 (679)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 85¢	$4.2	$3.46	-$0.74	9% 38-367 (405)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.72	$0.59	-$0.14	36% 156-274 (430)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.52	$0.44	-$0.08	36% 173-306 (479)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.41	$0.44	+$0.02	33% 184-373 (557)

241532532432

Invested

$387.46

Value

$335.42

PnL

-$52.04

Record

23%

149-503 (652)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$33.38

Value

$35.46

PnL

+$2.08

Record

88%

434-59 (493)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$56.27

Value

$16.16

PnL

-$0.48

Record

52%

244-227 (471)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.11

Value

$4.57

PnL

+$0.46

Record

16-663 (679)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.46

PnL

-$0.74

Record

38-367 (405)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$0.14

Record

36%

156-274 (430)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$0.08

Record

36%

173-306 (479)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.44

PnL

+$0.02

Record

33%

184-373 (557)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.