Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on November 5?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $267 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$266.51

Combined PnL

-$22.56

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$264.28

Total Shares265

Combined PnL-$0.14

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.23

Total Shares349

Combined PnL-$22.43

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.8¢	$118.82	$92.72	-$0.16	76% 13050-4194 (17244)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$78.68	$78.76	+$0.08	61% 15003-9455 (24458)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$35.47	$35.44	-$0.03	61% 16040-10339 (26379)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.91	-$0.03	50% 9910-9917 (19827)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$91.95	$22.52	-$0.01	58% 12041-8590 (20631)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$11.94	$4.93	+$0.01	31% 2671-5963 (8634)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$264.91	$1.59	-$22.49	41% 825-1210 (2035)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.12	$0.54	+$0.42	20% 2781-10948 (13729)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.19	$0.08	-$0.11	41% 1152-1658 (2810)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$3.87	$0.02	-$0.24	47% 8497-9689 (18186)

Lucerys

Invested

$118.82

Value

$92.72

PnL

-$0.16

Record

76%

13050-4194 (17244)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$78.68

Value

$78.76

PnL

+$0.08

Record

61%

15003-9455 (24458)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$35.47

Value

$35.44

PnL

-$0.03

Record

61%

16040-10339 (26379)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.91

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

9910-9917 (19827)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$91.95

Value

$22.52

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

12041-8590 (20631)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$11.94

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$0.01

Record

31%

2671-5963 (8634)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$264.91

Value

$1.59

PnL

-$22.49

Record

41%

825-1210 (2035)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.54

PnL

+$0.42

Record

20%

2781-10948 (13729)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.11

Record

41%

1152-1658 (2810)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.87

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.24

Record

47%

8497-9689 (18186)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.