Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on November 4?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $867 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$866.57

Combined PnL

$42.88

Smart Money Entry

84.5¢ → 99.5¢

+18% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 13 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$385.23

Total Shares374

Combined PnL+$42.88

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Noavg 61.9¢	$283.78	$368.48	+$84.7	44% 810-1039 (1849)
└ No leg	Noavg 61.9¢	$149.28	$234.64	+$85.36
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.1¢	$134.5	$133.85	-$0.66
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$131.67	$112.86	+$19.37	15% 498-2922 (3420)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.5¢	$65.42	$89.06	+$15.5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30¢	$27.44	$23.8	+$3.87
PO Poligarch	Noavg 73.3¢	$88.85	$110.45	+$21.6	54% 10084-8706 (18790)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$85.04	$95.38	+$10.34	77% 12654-3874 (16528)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$62.9	$61.98	-$0.92	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.46	-$0.52	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.46	-$0.48	53% 22809-20010 (42819)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 83.4¢	$15.18	$17.71	+$2.53	39% 1067-1680 (2747)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$14.93	$14.73	-$0.2	47% 1691-1873 (3564)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 53.4¢	$9.76	$9.75	-$0.01	40% 1147-1723 (2870)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$7.21	$9.73	+$2.52	32% 2587-5457 (8044)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 65.2¢	$6.01	$8.98	+$2.97	47% 2220-2477 (4697)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 61.8¢	$5	$7.87	+$2.87	42% 1202-1687 (2889)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 51.2¢	$2.56	$4.87	+$2.3	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$4.98	$4.87	-$0.12	55% 4438-3636 (8074)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Invested

$283.78

Value

$368.48

PnL

+$84.7

Record

44%

810-1039 (1849)

Both legs:

No$149.2861.9¢+$85.36

Yes$134.526.1¢-$0.66

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$131.67

Value

$112.86

PnL

+$19.37

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

Both legs:

No$65.4271.5¢+$15.5

Yes$27.4430¢+$3.87

Poligarch

Invested

$88.85

Value

$110.45

PnL

+$21.6

Record

54%

10084-8706 (18790)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$85.04

Value

$95.38

PnL

+$10.34

Record

77%

12654-3874 (16528)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$62.9

Value

$61.98

PnL

-$0.92

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.46

PnL

-$0.52

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.46

PnL

-$0.48

Record

53%

22809-20010 (42819)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$15.18

Value

$17.71

PnL

+$2.53

Record

39%

1067-1680 (2747)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$14.93

Value

$14.73

PnL

-$0.2

Record

47%

1691-1873 (3564)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$9.76

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$0.01

Record

40%

1147-1723 (2870)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$7.21

Value

$9.73

PnL

+$2.52

Record

32%

2587-5457 (8044)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.01

Value

$8.98

PnL

+$2.97

Record

47%

2220-2477 (4697)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

Value

$7.87

PnL

+$2.87

Record

42%

1202-1687 (2889)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$2.56

Value

$4.87

PnL

+$2.3

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$4.87

PnL

-$0.12

Record

55%

4438-3636 (8074)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 13 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.