Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on November 9?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 57¢ · $526 held · ends Nov 9

Yes43¢No57¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$526.48

Combined PnL

$5.72

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 57.5¢

-5% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 14 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$451.71

Total Shares734

Combined PnL+$5.72

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
2B9S	Noavg 60.7¢	$138.21	$124.12	-$14.09	16% 4635-23687 (28322)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 57.4¢	$84.56	$81.83	-$2.74	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Yesavg 43.8¢	$75.34	$74.76	-$0.58	54% 10777-9308 (20085)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43.8¢	$39.93	$40.58	+$0.65
└ No leg	Noavg 57.5¢	$35.41	$34.18	-$1.24
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 75¢	$42.79	$51.94	+$9.15	53% 4150-3716 (7866)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 52¢	$42.18	$45	+$2.82	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$34.9	$41.86	+$6.96	26% 2319-6715 (9034)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 65.3¢	$43.11	$32.27	-$1.94	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 60.8¢	$14.34	$21.45	+$7.11	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 57.8¢	$16.49	$15.82	-$0.67	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 52.2¢	$12.17	$13.53	+$1.35	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 52.8¢	$7.86	$8.57	+$0.71	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 55.2¢	$4.89	$5.09	+$0.2	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 55.6¢	$4.42	$4.37	-$0.05	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 58.4¢	$3.27	$3.19	-$0.08	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$16.87	$2.68	-$3.02	53% 8890-8041 (16931)

2B9S

Invested

$138.21

Value

$124.12

PnL

-$14.09

Record

16%

4635-23687 (28322)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$84.56

Value

$81.83

PnL

-$2.74

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

PoligarchARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.34

Value

$74.76

PnL

-$0.58

Record

54%

10777-9308 (20085)

Both legs:

Yes$39.9343.8¢+$0.65

No$35.4157.5¢-$1.24

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$42.79

Value

$51.94

PnL

+$9.15

Record

53%

4150-3716 (7866)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$42.18

Value

$45

PnL

+$2.82

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$34.9

Value

$41.86

PnL

+$6.96

Record

26%

2319-6715 (9034)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$43.11

Value

$32.27

PnL

-$1.94

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$14.34

Value

$21.45

PnL

+$7.11

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$16.49

Value

$15.82

PnL

-$0.67

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$12.17

Value

$13.53

PnL

+$1.35

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$7.86

Value

$8.57

PnL

+$0.71

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$0.2

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.42

Value

$4.37

PnL

-$0.05

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.27

Value

$3.19

PnL

-$0.08

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$16.87

Value

$2.68

PnL

-$3.02

Record

53%

8890-8041 (16931)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

14 of 14 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.