Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on November 8?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 2.3¢ · $127 held · ended Nov 8

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$127.31

Combined PnL

$21.62

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$64.47

Total Shares66

Combined PnL+$3.96

Yes3 traders

Total Value$62.84

Total Shares628

Combined PnL+$17.66

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$27.07	$64.47	+$3.96	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$7.32	$26.86	-$3.95	53% 4150-3716 (7866)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$1.16	$18.51	+$17.35	39% 900-1436 (2336)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.6¢	$13.2	$17.47	+$4.27	26% 2319-6715 (9034)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$27.07

Value

$64.47

PnL

+$3.96

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.32

Value

$26.86

PnL

-$3.95

Record

53%

4150-3716 (7866)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.16

Value

$18.51

PnL

+$17.35

Record

39%

900-1436 (2336)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.2

Value

$17.47

PnL

+$4.27

Record

26%

2319-6715 (9034)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.5%

2.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2790.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

2890.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.