Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on November 7?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $93 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$92.54
$10.84
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $41.81 | $44.76 | +$2.95 | 53% 24342-21404 (45746) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 78.3¢ | $74.8 | $34.29 | +$6.01 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Noavg 74.4¢ | $9.12 | $10.99 | +$1.87 | 37% 903-1557 (2460) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $2.5 | $2.51 | +$0.01 | 97% 476-14 (490) |
Invested
$41.81
Value
$44.76
PnL
+$2.95
Record
53%
24342-21404 (45746)
Invested
$74.8
Value
$34.29
PnL
+$6.01
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
Invested
$9.12
Value
$10.99
PnL
+$1.87
Record
37%
903-1557 (2460)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.51
PnL
+$0.01
Record
97%
476-14 (490)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.