Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 2 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on November 5?

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (18%) · Yes at 36¢ · $971 held · ends Nov 5

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 18%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$970.6

Combined PnL

$148.08

Smart Money Entry

32.2¢ → 36¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 11 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$400.92

Total Shares779

Combined PnL+$150.14

No9 traders

Total Value$151.2

Total Shares243

Combined PnL-$2.06

Yes — 18%No — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 32.2¢	$776.39	$399.84	+$150.04	41% 799-1129 (1928)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 61.9¢	$316.28	$317.48	+$1.2	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
└ No leg	Noavg 61.9¢	$239.48	$232.2	-$7.28
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.9¢	$76.81	$85.28	+$8.47
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 67.3¢	$215.5	$101.01	-$1.89	14% 461-2750 (3211)
└ No leg	Noavg 67.3¢	$67.34	$60.01	-$26.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34¢	$34	$41	+$24.76
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 63.5¢	$65.82	$62.15	-$3.67	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 55¢	$20.51	$22.38	+$1.87	40% 2175-3220 (5395)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 59.2¢	$18.35	$18.56	+$0.21	47% 2137-2439 (4576)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 66.5¢	$19.11	$16.94	-$2.17	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 56.2¢	$11.35	$12.11	+$0.76	55% 4408-3603 (8011)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$8.07	$8.42	+$0.35	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$5.95	$5.64	-$0.31	56% 631-505 (1136)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 49.2¢	$2.46	$3	+$0.54	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 49.2¢	$1.64	$1.99	+$0.36	50% 657-658 (1315)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$0.98	$1.08	+$0.1	54% 10027-8667 (18694)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$776.39

Value

$399.84

PnL

+$150.04

Record

41%

799-1129 (1928)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$316.28

Value

$317.48

PnL

+$1.2

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

Both legs:

No$239.4861.9¢-$7.28

Yes$76.8136.9¢+$8.47

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$215.5

Value

$101.01

PnL

-$1.89

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

Both legs:

No$67.3467.3¢-$26.65

Yes$3434¢+$24.76

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$65.82

Value

$62.15

PnL

-$3.67

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$20.51

Value

$22.38

PnL

+$1.87

Record

40%

2175-3220 (5395)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$18.35

Value

$18.56

PnL

+$0.21

Record

47%

2137-2439 (4576)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$19.11

Value

$16.94

PnL

-$2.17

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$11.35

Value

$12.11

PnL

+$0.76

Record

55%

4408-3603 (8011)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$8.07

Value

$8.42

PnL

+$0.35

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$5.95

Value

$5.64

PnL

-$0.31

Record

56%

631-505 (1136)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$2.46

Value

PnL

+$0.54

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.99

PnL

+$0.36

Record

50%

657-658 (1315)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

10027-8667 (18694)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 11 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.