Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on November 4?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $485 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$484.82

Combined PnL

$57.12

Smart Money Entry

28.6¢ → 0.2¢

-99% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$307.49

Total Shares865

Combined PnL+$37.82

No4 traders

Total Value$177.32

Total Shares230

Combined PnL+$19.3

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 30.8¢	$323.57	$263.56	+$82.86	42% 779-1075 (1854)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$68.43	$75.66	+$7.23	46% 10026-11725 (21751)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 75.1¢	$85.69	$72.46	-$13.23	53% 9512-8365 (17877)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.7¢	$22.08	$34.63	+$0.62	53% 3583-3230 (6813)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 3.4¢	$1.03	$22.95	+$25.45	40% 2052-3074 (5126)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.7¢	$46.03	$8.73	-$11.12	58% 18458-13639 (32097)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 64¢	$10	$6.25	-$0.15	48% 2103-2279 (4382)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$2.76	$0.33	-$2.15	53% 7888-7001 (14889)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 40.3¢	$37.74	$0.16	-$31.58	58% 2445-1789 (4234)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.9	$0.09	-$0.81	17% 4190-19764 (23954)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$323.57

Value

$263.56

PnL

+$82.86

Record

42%

779-1075 (1854)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$68.43

Value

$75.66

PnL

+$7.23

Record

46%

10026-11725 (21751)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$85.69

Value

$72.46

PnL

-$13.23

Record

53%

9512-8365 (17877)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.08

Value

$34.63

PnL

+$0.62

Record

53%

3583-3230 (6813)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.03

Value

$22.95

PnL

+$25.45

Record

40%

2052-3074 (5126)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.03

Value

$8.73

PnL

-$11.12

Record

58%

18458-13639 (32097)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$6.25

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

2103-2279 (4382)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.76

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$2.15

Record

53%

7888-7001 (14889)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.74

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$31.58

Record

58%

2445-1789 (4234)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.81

Record

17%

4190-19764 (23954)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7841.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

7941.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.