Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on November 4?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $266 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$265.64

Combined PnL

-$229.82

Smart Money Entry

27.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$166.99

Total Shares1,338

Combined PnL-$293.03

No4 traders

Total Value$98.65

Total Shares99

Combined PnL+$63.21

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothCTR	Yesavg 51.8¢	$156.2	$134.87	-$0.44	15% 435-2472 (2907)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 49.4¢	$43.8	$59.45	+$28.71	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.8¢	$47.47	$31.55	-$15.91	53% 9849-8576 (18425)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 36¢	$23.25	$23	+$41.18	40% 2104-3149 (5253)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$33.82	$10.58	-$7.29	58% 18975-13958 (32933)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$5.03	$5.62	+$0.62	58% 6371-4596 (10967)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 25.6¢	$249.4	$0.49	-$248.92	42% 788-1101 (1889)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$7.35	$0.05	-$7.3	18% 4236-19937 (24173)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 47.9¢	$14.37	$0.02	-$14.36	58% 2456-1793 (4249)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$0.59	$0.01	-$0.59	48% 2120-2300 (4420)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.2¢	$20.11	$0	-$5.52	53% 8051-7154 (15205)

IstarothCTR

Yes

Invested

$156.2

Value

$134.87

PnL

-$0.44

Record

15%

435-2472 (2907)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$43.8

Value

$59.45

PnL

+$28.71

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.47

Value

$31.55

PnL

-$15.91

Record

53%

9849-8576 (18425)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$23.25

Value

$23

PnL

+$41.18

Record

40%

2104-3149 (5253)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.82

Value

$10.58

PnL

-$7.29

Record

58%

18975-13958 (32933)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.62

PnL

+$0.62

Record

58%

6371-4596 (10967)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$249.4

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$248.92

Record

42%

788-1101 (1889)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.35

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$7.3

Record

18%

4236-19937 (24173)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.37

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$14.36

Record

58%

2456-1793 (4249)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.59

Record

48%

2120-2300 (4420)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.11

Value

PnL

-$5.52

Record

53%

8051-7154 (15205)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.