Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on November 2?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 77¢ · $480 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$480.28
$2.64
80.7¢ → 77.3¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 81.5¢ | $223.47 | $223.01 | -$0.45 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 78.7¢ | $175.54 | $197.08 | +$21.54 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.4¢ | $42.64 | $30.17 | -$12.48 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | $47.31 | $15.65 | -$6.42 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 85.7¢ | $19 | $14.37 | +$0.44 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
Invested
$223.47
Value
$223.01
PnL
-$0.45
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
Invested
$175.54
Value
$197.08
PnL
+$21.54
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
Invested
$42.64
Value
$30.17
PnL
-$12.48
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$47.31
Value
$15.65
PnL
-$6.42
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
2B9S<$100Invested
$19
Value
$14.37
PnL
+$0.44
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.