Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on November 2?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 39¢ · $568 held · ends Nov 2

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$567.82

Combined PnL

$131.89

Smart Money Entry

24.7¢ → 38.5¢

+56% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$511.31

Total Shares1,088

Combined PnL+$130.96

No2 traders

Total Value$56.51

Total Shares93

Combined PnL+$0.93

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 23.8¢	$142.62	$281.19	+$150.54	50% 673-674 (1347)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 27.9¢	$113.2	$185.94	-$51.07	59% 1921-1351 (3272)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 60¢	$53.53	$54.42	+$0.89	54% 467-391 (858)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$12.69	$44.18	+$31.49	50% 1908-1873 (3781)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 60¢	$2.05	$2.09	+$0.03	53% 6690-5888 (12578)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$142.62

Value

$281.19

PnL

+$150.54

Record

50%

673-674 (1347)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$113.2

Value

$185.94

PnL

-$51.07

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$53.53

Value

$54.42

PnL

+$0.89

Record

54%

467-391 (858)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.69

Value

$44.18

PnL

+$31.49

Record

50%

1908-1873 (3781)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.09

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

6690-5888 (12578)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.