Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 52¢ · $783 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$782.59
$35.28
47.8¢ → 52¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Yesavg 49¢ | $452.08 | $461.31 | +$9.23 | 50% 1862-1833 (3695) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 44¢ | $168.13 | $196.71 | +$28.57 | 50% 655-653 (1308) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $89.09 | $89.09 | +$0 | 55% 435-356 (791) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 55.4¢ | $22.34 | $17.99 | -$0.77 | 20% 329-1356 (1685) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 54.5¢ | $19.25 | $17.5 | -$1.75 | 59% 1859-1299 (3158) |
Invested
$452.08
Value
$461.31
PnL
+$9.23
Record
50%
1862-1833 (3695)
Invested
$168.13
Value
$196.71
PnL
+$28.57
Record
50%
655-653 (1308)
Invested
$89.09
Value
$89.09
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
435-356 (791)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$22.34
Value
$17.99
PnL
-$0.77
Record
20%
329-1356 (1685)
Invested
$19.25
Value
$17.5
PnL
-$1.75
Record
59%
1859-1299 (3158)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.