Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 30?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 20¢ · $440 held · ends Oct 30

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$440.41

Combined PnL

$82.38

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$196.52

Total Shares983

Combined PnL+$83.03

No3 traders

Total Value$243.89

Total Shares294

Combined PnL-$0.65

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 21.7¢	$117.59	$196.52	+$83.03	47% 617-705 (1322)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 77.1¢	$168.48	$168.18	-$0.29	55% 327-264 (591)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 74.9¢	$62.01	$55.71	-$0.76	23% 290-994 (1284)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 74¢	$19.6	$20	+$0.4	18% 521-2334 (2855)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$117.59

Value

$196.52

PnL

+$83.03

Record

47%

617-705 (1322)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$168.48

Value

$168.18

PnL

-$0.29

Record

55%

327-264 (591)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$62.01

Value

$55.71

PnL

-$0.76

Record

23%

290-994 (1284)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$19.6

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.4

Record

18%

521-2334 (2855)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$358.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

458.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.