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YesYesYesYes
LornaPredictsCTR<$100YesNo
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$231.05
Smart Money Signal
Yes
6 of 7 top traders (86%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,201
Combined PnL-$231.05
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 86%No — 14%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 19.2¢ | $231.05 | — | -$231.05 | 47% 647-728 (1375) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1774-1756 (3530) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6481-5684 (12165) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13602-10422 (24024) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 526-2359 (2885) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 372-296 (668) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 21% 300-1144 (1444) |
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTRInvested
$231.05
Value
—
PnL
-$231.05
Record
47%
647-728 (1375)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1774-1756 (3530)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6481-5684 (12165)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13602-10422 (24024)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
526-2359 (2885)
HE
HellYeahTrader<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
372-296 (668)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
21%
300-1144 (1444)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x09ca888d...14cb26
Slug
highest-temperature-in-tokyo-on-october-30-2026-18c