Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or higher on November 15?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $4 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$4.49

Combined PnL

-$67.14

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$4.13

Total Shares4

Combined PnL+$0

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.36

Total Shares728

Combined PnL-$67.14

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$4.13	$4.13	+$0	99% 1425-20 (1445)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$38.18	$0.21	-$37.97	58% 787-561 (1348)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$25.97	$0.06	-$12.27	35% 3825-6979 (10804)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.36	$0.05	-$8.32	17% 92-443 (535)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.01	$0.02	-$2.99	32% 224-485 (709)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.54	$0.01	-$2.53	33% 309-636 (945)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.17	$0.01	-$1.16	39% 3706-5907 (9613)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	28% 3233-8195 (11428)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.55	$0	-$0.55	42% 2644-3715 (6359)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	37% 1569-2700 (4269)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$4.13

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1425-20 (1445)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.18

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$37.97

Record

58%

787-561 (1348)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.97

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$12.27

Record

35%

3825-6979 (10804)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.36

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.32

Record

17%

92-443 (535)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.01

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.99

Record

32%

224-485 (709)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.54

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.53

Record

33%

309-636 (945)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.17

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.16

Record

39%

3706-5907 (9613)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

28%

3233-8195 (11428)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

PnL

-$0.55

Record

42%

2644-3715 (6359)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

37%

1569-2700 (4269)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.