Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 15?
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $147 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 100%
$146.58
-$3.38
99.7¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $25.97 | $25.96 | -$0.01 | 46% 1101-1303 (2404) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.94 | -$0.02 | 53% 7051-6190 (13241) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $56.9 | $19.93 | -$3.29 | 36% 3768-6825 (10593) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.92 | -$0.02 | 34% 234-460 (694) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $16.63 | $16.62 | -$0.01 | 49% 789-829 (1618) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $15.34 | $15.33 | -$0.01 | 49% 758-801 (1559) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $9.97 | $9.97 | -$0.01 | 29% 3186-7958 (11144) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $7.98 | $7.97 | -$0.01 | 39% 3645-5777 (9422) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.15 | $5.15 | -$0 | 57% 704-522 (1226) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $3.9 | $3.9 | -$0 | 50% 723-711 (1434) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $6.03 | $1.89 | -$0.01 | 42% 2632-3661 (6293) |
Invested
$25.97
Value
$25.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
46%
1101-1303 (2404)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.94
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
7051-6190 (13241)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$56.9
Value
$19.93
PnL
-$3.29
Record
36%
3768-6825 (10593)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.92
PnL
-$0.02
Record
34%
234-460 (694)
Invested
$16.63
Value
$16.62
PnL
-$0.01
Record
49%
789-829 (1618)
Invested
$15.34
Value
$15.33
PnL
-$0.01
Record
49%
758-801 (1559)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$9.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
29%
3186-7958 (11144)
Invested
$7.98
Value
$7.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
39%
3645-5777 (9422)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5.15
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
704-522 (1226)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.9
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
723-711 (1434)
Invested
$6.03
Value
$1.89
PnL
-$0.01
Record
42%
2632-3661 (6293)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $25.96
cigarettes
No — $19.94
Lucerys
No — $19.93
quietparcel
No — $19.92
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $16.62
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $15.33
qwen300.fund
No — $9.97
xtxpleasecallme
No — $7.97
0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658
No — $5.15
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $3.9