Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on November 15?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 98¢ · $161 held · ends Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$160.53

Combined PnL

-$2.03

Smart Money Entry

96.1¢ → 98¢

+2% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$159.11

Total Shares166

Combined PnL-$1.86

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.43

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.17

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$35.54	$35.26	-$0.28	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$55.57	$19.27	-$1.8	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$19.32	$19.12	-$0.2	30% 1043-2403 (3446)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$17.95	$18.45	+$0.5	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$11.96	$11.93	-$0.03	63% 741-442 (1183)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$11.06	$10.99	-$0.06	49% 758-801 (1559)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$9.71	$9.65	-$0.06	29% 3186-7958 (11144)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$7.81	$7.62	-$0.19	42% 1628-2289 (3917)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.88	$5.19	+$0.31	57% 704-522 (1226)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$5.03	$5.01	-$0.01	50% 723-711 (1434)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$5	$4.95	-$0.05	35% 260-485 (745)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$4.93	$4.9	-$0.03	51% 773-729 (1502)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$3.79	$3.77	-$0.02	51% 809-769 (1578)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$2.94	$3	+$0.06	49% 789-829 (1618)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$1.59	$1.43	-$0.17	40% 660-990 (1650)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$35.54

Value

$35.26

PnL

-$0.28

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$55.57

Value

$19.27

PnL

-$1.8

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$19.32

Value

$19.12

PnL

-$0.2

Record

30%

1043-2403 (3446)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.95

Value

$18.45

PnL

+$0.5

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$11.96

Value

$11.93

PnL

-$0.03

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$11.06

Value

$10.99

PnL

-$0.06

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.71

Value

$9.65

PnL

-$0.06

Record

29%

3186-7958 (11144)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$7.81

Value

$7.62

PnL

-$0.19

Record

42%

1628-2289 (3917)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$5.19

PnL

+$0.31

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

35%

260-485 (745)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.93

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.79

Value

$3.77

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

809-769 (1578)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.94

Value

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.59

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$0.17

Record

40%

660-990 (1650)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.