Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on November 15?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 91¢ · $190 held · ends Nov 15

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$190.38

Combined PnL

-$27.1

Smart Money Entry

78.7¢ → 90.8¢

+15% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$78.42

Total Shares644

Combined PnL-$26.61

No12 traders

Total Value$111.2

Total Shares140

Combined PnL-$0.48

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.1¢	$53.96	$39.4	-$14.56	40% 660-990 (1650)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$46.08	$32.73	-$13.34	55% 1097-903 (2000)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$16.13	$17.99	+$1.86	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$15.7	$15.46	-$0.24	29% 1104-2668 (3772)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 85¢	$39.38	$14.66	-$2.96	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 73.4¢	$11.49	$11.68	+$0.19	51% 773-729 (1502)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 87.3¢	$10	$10.19	+$0.19	35% 260-485 (745)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 75.2¢	$8.35	$8.83	+$0.48	58% 726-520 (1246)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$7.84	$8.14	+$0.29	49% 758-801 (1559)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 74.6¢	$7.83	$7.84	+$0	57% 704-522 (1226)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 70.2¢	$7.02	$7.46	+$0.44	29% 3186-7958 (11144)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$5.71	$5.33	-$0.37	50% 723-711 (1434)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$5.61	$3.4	+$0.66	65% 4317-2331 (6648)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.4¢	$25.66	$2.89	+$0.63	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$2.23	$1.93	-$0.3	49% 789-829 (1618)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 77.6¢	$1.76	$1.69	-$0.07	63% 741-442 (1183)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.96

Value

$39.4

PnL

-$14.56

Record

40%

660-990 (1650)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.08

Value

$32.73

PnL

-$13.34

Record

55%

1097-903 (2000)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$16.13

Value

$17.99

PnL

+$1.86

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$15.7

Value

$15.46

PnL

-$0.24

Record

29%

1104-2668 (3772)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.38

Value

$14.66

PnL

-$2.96

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$11.49

Value

$11.68

PnL

+$0.19

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$10.19

PnL

+$0.19

Record

35%

260-485 (745)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$8.35

Value

$8.83

PnL

+$0.48

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$7.84

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$0.29

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.83

Value

$7.84

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$7.02

Value

$7.46

PnL

+$0.44

Record

29%

3186-7958 (11144)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.71

Value

$5.33

PnL

-$0.37

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.61

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0.66

Record

65%

4317-2331 (6648)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.66

Value

$2.89

PnL

+$0.63

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.23

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$0.3

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$1.76

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$0.07

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.2%

90.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.