Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on November 15?

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $255 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$255.46

Combined PnL

-$0.1

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 99.3¢

+2% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$254.35

Total Shares260

Combined PnL+$0.98

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.11

Total Shares24

Combined PnL-$1.08

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$76.29	$77.6	+$1.31	40% 660-990 (1650)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$29.98	$29.75	-$0.23	35% 260-485 (745)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$22.64	$22.73	+$0.08	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$56.84	$19.86	-$0.66	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$19.32	$19.15	-$0.17	42% 1628-2289 (3917)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97¢	$40	$19.08	+$0.48	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$12.08	$12.13	+$0.06	63% 741-442 (1183)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$10.29	$10.38	+$0.09	51% 773-729 (1502)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$9.88	$9.88	-$0	29% 3186-7958 (11144)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$8.79	$8.77	-$0.02	58% 726-520 (1246)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 96¢	$7.63	$7.71	+$0.08	35% 251-467 (718)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$7.23	$7.22	-$0.01	57% 704-522 (1226)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5.09	$5.07	-$0.02	50% 723-711 (1434)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5.04	$5.02	-$0.02	49% 758-801 (1559)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$2	$0.92	-$1.08	14% 82-515 (597)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$0.19	$0.19	+$0	42% 2632-3661 (6293)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$76.29

Value

$77.6

PnL

+$1.31

Record

40%

660-990 (1650)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$29.98

Value

$29.75

PnL

-$0.23

Record

35%

260-485 (745)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$22.64

Value

$22.73

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$56.84

Value

$19.86

PnL

-$0.66

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$19.32

Value

$19.15

PnL

-$0.17

Record

42%

1628-2289 (3917)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$40

Value

$19.08

PnL

+$0.48

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$12.08

Value

$12.13

PnL

+$0.06

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.29

Value

$10.38

PnL

+$0.09

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.88

Value

$9.88

PnL

-$0

Record

29%

3186-7958 (11144)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$8.79

Value

$8.77

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$7.63

Value

$7.71

PnL

+$0.08

Record

35%

251-467 (718)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.23

Value

$7.22

PnL

-$0.01

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$1.08

Record

14%

82-515 (597)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

2632-3661 (6293)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.