Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on November 15?

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (10%) · No at 100¢ · $300 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 10%

Total Value

$300.34

Combined PnL

-$69.17

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$299.7

Total Shares300

Combined PnL+$0

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.64

Total Shares638

Combined PnL-$69.17

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$299.7	$299.7	+$0	98% 1504-23 (1527)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$38.18	$0.42	-$37.76	58% 818-587 (1405)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.36	$0.09	-$8.27	17% 92-443 (535)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.16	$0.05	-$4.11	43% 5158-6923 (12081)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.54	$0.03	-$2.51	34% 329-644 (973)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.91	$0.02	-$13.76	35% 3858-7087 (10945)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.17	$0.01	-$1.15	38% 3738-6054 (9792)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$0.55	$0.01	-$0.54	41% 2653-3786 (6439)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.62	$0.01	-$0.61	24% 752-2351 (3103)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	36% 1595-2778 (4373)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$299.7

Value

$299.7

PnL

+$0

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.18

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$37.76

Record

58%

818-587 (1405)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.36

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$8.27

Record

17%

92-443 (535)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.16

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.11

Record

43%

5158-6923 (12081)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.54

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.51

Record

34%

329-644 (973)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.91

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$13.76

Record

35%

3858-7087 (10945)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.17

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.15

Record

38%

3738-6054 (9792)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.54

Record

41%

2653-3786 (6439)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.61

Record

24%

752-2351 (3103)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

36%

1595-2778 (4373)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.